11 Jul · 06:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1338
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wiza
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1376
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Wiza
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H17-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.