11 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1382
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowol
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1373
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kowol
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.