11 Jul · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PJ
🇵🇱Patryk Jedrzejak
ELO 1648
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Jedrzejak
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1574
FormLWLWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Jedrzejak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H28-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-26)