11 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1364
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rolak
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1326
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H4-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.