11 Jul · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1558
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Witczak
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1524
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H35-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.