11 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1376
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Przewlocki
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1386
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Przewlocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.