11 Jul · 14:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1512
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Witczak
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1566
FormWWLLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H36-47
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)