11 Jul · 14:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1376
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kowol
MK
🇵🇱Marek Kowol
ELO 1401
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kowol
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.