11 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1575
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1601
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 35% · 2.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H16-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.