11 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1314
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Poloszczanski
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1321
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Poloszczanski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H7-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.