11 Jul · 15:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇵🇱Patryk Jedrzejak
ELO 1636
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jedrzejak
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1601
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jedrzejak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H17-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.