11 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1289
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rybak
KR
🇵🇱Kazimierz Rybak
ELO 1302
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Rybak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.