11 Jul · 18:15 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1289
FormLLLWL
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Gesiarz
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1483
FormLWWWW
30%
70%
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 56%Total ~72 pts
0-3
30%
1-3
25%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+194
H2H16-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+194)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-9)