11 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇵🇱Filip Mlynarski
ELO 1595
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mlynarski
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1564
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Mlynarski stays under total as favourite 66% (35)
Fair odds · Mlynarski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.