11 Jul · 19:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1527
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kostyk
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1464
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Kostyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)