12 Jul · 00:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1665
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1749
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H31-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-14)