11 Jul · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1371
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adach
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1427
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Adach
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H37-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-21)