11 Jul · 23:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1454
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Machelski
JD
🇵🇱Jerzy Debski
ELO 1439
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Machelski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.