11 Jul · 23:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Kamil Kostyk
ELO 1518
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kostyk
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1474
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Kostyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)