12 Jul · 06:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1490
FormWWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Vincenec
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1420
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H14-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)