12 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1444
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1450
FormWWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H15-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.