12 Jul · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1579
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Koczyba
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1512
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H16-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-3)