12 Jul · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1573
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1518
FormWWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H13-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-4)