12 Jul · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1580
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1531
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H44-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-26)