12 Jul · 13:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1467
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dabrowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1399
FormWLWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H23-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-16)