12 Jul · 14:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1309
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Iwasyszyn
WI
🇵🇱Wojciech Iwasyszyn
ELO 1372
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Iwasyszyn
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H7-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-2)