12 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1432
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Piotrowski
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1416
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Stapor rarely covers set handicap as underdog 38% (24)
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.