12 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1366
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jablonski
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1327
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jablonski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.