12 Jul · 15:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1417
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1432
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.