12 Jul · 14:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1474
FormWWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1555
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 78% (23)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+81
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)