12 Jul · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1633
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kapik
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1557
FormWLLWW
58%
42%
🌟Kapik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (90)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H24-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-13)