13 Jul · 00:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1578
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1614
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H32-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.