12 Jul · 23:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1508
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1578
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
🌟Kubiak covers set handicap as favourite 71% (31)
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H1-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)