12 Jul · 23:00 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1369
FormWWWLL
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1614
FormLLLWL
25%
75%
⚡ Cover lean · Tkaczyk🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~73 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+245
H2H46-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+245)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-14)