12 Jul · 18:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1513
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Krupa
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1439
FormLWLLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~82 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H9-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)