12 Jul · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1439
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Badura
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1415
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Badura
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 40% · 2.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~82 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H6-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.