12 Jul · 18:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1508
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1564
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H11-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-5)