12 Jul · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1480
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1431
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H51-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (51-48)