12 Jul · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1402
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Badura
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1457
FormWWLWL
44%
56%
🌟Sawicki covers set handicap as underdog 85% (13)
Fair odds · Badura
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~83 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H33-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-7)