12 Jul · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1457
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupa
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1496
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H17-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.