12 Jul · 20:45 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1656
FormLWLWW
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Szostok
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1462
FormWLWLL
70%
30%
🌟Baron goes over total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 56%Total ~76 pts
3-0
30%
3-1
25%
3-2
15%
2-3
12%
1-3
11%
Elo Gap+194
H2H23-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+194)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-15)