13 Jul · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1444
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Badura
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1371
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
🌟Sawicki covers set handicap as underdog 85% (13)
Fair odds · Badura
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+73
H2H34-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-7)