13 Jul · 05:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1466
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1481
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Baron goes over total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H78-82
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.