13 Jul · 05:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1619
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1654
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H44-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.