13 Jul · 05:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1390
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1348
FormWWLWW
55%
45%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)