13 Jul · 06:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1478
FormWLWWL
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1642
FormLWWWL
33%
67%
🌟Baron goes over total as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~76 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
25%
2-3
17%
3-1
13%
3-2
12%
Elo Gap+164
H2H24-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+164)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-15)