13 Jul · 05:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1429
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1469
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 71% (59)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H10-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.