13 Jul · 07:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1487
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pyrek
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1482
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pyrek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H29-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.