13 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MJ
🇵🇱Marcin Jadczyk
ELO 1777
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kosowski
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kosowski
ELO 1857
FormWLWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kosowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H42-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-32)