13 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1395
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sulkowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1323
FormLLLLW
58%
42%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H12-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-9)